Analysis and prediction of marine heatwaves in the Western North Pacific and Chinese coastal region

Over the past decade, marine heatwaves (MHWs) research has been conducted in almost all of world’s oceans, and their catastrophic effects on environment have gradually recognized. Using second version Optimal Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature analysis data (OISSTV2) from 1982 to 2014, this study analyzes six MHWs characteristics Western North Pacific Chinese Coastal region (WNPCC, 100°E ? 180°E, 0° 65°N). occur most WNPCC areas, with an average frequency, duration, days, cumulative intensity, maximum mean intensity 1.95 ± 0.21 times/year, 11.38 1.97 22.06 3.84 18.06 7.67 °Cdays, 1.84 0.50°C, 1.49 0.42 °C, respectively, historical period (1982 ~ 2014). Comparing simulation results 19 models Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) OISSTV2 observations, five best-performing (GFDL-CM4, GFDL-ESM4, AWI-CM-1-1-MR, EC-Earth3-Veg, EC-Earth3) are selected for projection (2015 2100). The projections these analyzed detail under Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) 1-2.6, 2-4.5 5-8.5 scenarios. projected SSP5-8.5 more considerable than those SSP1-2.6 2-4.5, except frequency. is 96.36 56.30, 175.44 92.62, 385.22 168.00 °Cdays SSP1-2.6, scenarios, respectively. This suggests that different emission scenarios a crucial impact MHW variations. Each characteristic obvious increasing trend annual occurrences. increase rate three 1.02 0.83, 3.83 1.43, 6.70 2.61 °Cdays/year, occurrence area summer slightly smaller winter, but stronger winter.